In questo articolo vi mostreremo cone sia possibile includere in un grafico un concetto di “rischio” e “opportunità” per dare l’idea della incertezza intrinseca nei risultati che vengono presentati.
Nella pianificazione di un progetto spesso si valutano scenari alternativi a quello base e si ottengono dei risulati a volte superiori a volte inferiori. Si usa la parola “Rischi” per indicare la differenza tra il risultato voluto e un qualisasi altro risultato negativo e si usa la parola “Opportunità” per la differenza tra lo stesso risulato voluto e un qualsiasi altro risultato superiore allo stesso.
Se consideriamo una qualisasi variabile da rappresentare (ricavi, clienti, utile, margine), questa sarà influenzata per il futuro da “rischi” e “opportunità” che si vogliono rappresentare su un grafico:
![](data:image/png;base64,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)
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